SMM6 March 24: today's SMM cobalt sulfate price 4.45-47000 yuan / ton, the average price is the same as the day before. From the perspective of the domestic cobalt sulfate spot market, the price of cobalt sulfate purchased by downstream ternary precursor manufacturers has gradually dropped from 4.6-47000 yuan / ton to 4.4-45000 yuan / ton, with a little cash price or money to the delivery transaction price of 43000 yuan / ton. Feedback this week, downstream ternary precursor manufacturers still have part of the procurement demand for cobalt sulfate, Dragon Boat Festival holiday is approaching, post-holiday prices are bearish, there is no purchase this week. It is expected that the actual purchase price of cobalt sulfate will continue to decline after the festival, or fall to 4.3-44000 yuan / ton.
Upstream raw material end:
At present, cobalt raw materials are arriving in Hong Kong one after another, a little has already arrived at the factory, and the mainstream raw materials will arrive at the plant at the end of June, which has little impact on the overall operating rate of the smelters; according to research, a few long-term supply of Glencore will make up for the lack of raw materials in June-August. SMM estimates that about 13500 physical tons of raw materials will arrive in Hong Kong in June and 27000 physical tons of raw materials will arrive in Hong Kong in July.
Cobalt intermediate prices, the current domestic bonded area spot price is still basically more than 10 U.S. dollars / pound, long order price is basically 9.5 U.S. dollars / pound, but the price began to loosen, the average price of cobalt intermediate products is expected to be 9.6 U.S. dollars / pound in July.
Import of Cobalt Raw Materials and prices of SMM Cobalt Intermediates from January to July 2020
Source: SMM, China Customs
Downstream demand side:
In May, the installed capacity of power batteries was 3.5GWH, down 38.2% from the same period last year and 2.7% from the previous month, but the number of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 4.3% month-on-month in May. The installed capacity of new energy buses and special-purpose vehicles decreased by 9.3% and 7.2% respectively. From June to July, the installed capacity of passenger cars as the main force of new energy vehicles continued to increase. The short-term battery factory has a large inventory of ternary materials, and the purchase orders for ternary materials have increased slightly, and only a few enterprise orders have increased. The orders of ternary materials and ternary precursors in Tesla industrial chain also increased, and the overall increment was less. At present, battery factories in the market and large-scale ternary precursor manufacturers import cobalt raw materials, mainly looking for a substitute processing smelter mode. Although the downstream demand has increased slightly recently, on the one hand, the new orders with high nickel and small power account for more, and the demand for cobalt sulfate is less; on the other hand, as a result of the substitute processing mode, ternary precursors and cathode material manufacturers purchase less orders for cobalt sulfate, and the demand for cobalt sulfate is still weak.
To sum up:
The shortage of cobalt raw materials is alleviated, the price downward trend is obvious, the raw material cost of the smelter is declining; the demand for the downstream power end increases slightly, only the market order for high nickel and small power increases slightly, and the raw material inventory of the power battery factory and the ternary material factory is relatively high. the willingness to purchase is low and the demand for cobalt sulfate is weak. The average price of cobalt sulfate in SMM from January 1 to June 24, 2020 is about 49100 yuan / ton. although the domestic supply of cobalt sulfate decreased slightly from May to June and began to go out of stock, the fundamentals of the overall oversupply have not eased for the time being. it is expected that the transaction price of cobalt sulfate will continue to decline from January 1 to July, or fall to 4.3-44000 yuan / ton.
SMM Cobalt Sulfate Price from January 1 to June 24, 2020
Source: SMM
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SMM's newly launched Cobalt Lithium New Energy Industry Weekly mainly tracks the market trends and price changes of the whole industry chain in China, such as cobalt, lithium, precursors, battery materials, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles, while reviewing weekly hot events and topics, with lithium battery as the core series of the entire industry chain, by showing the most clear industry data, conduct panoramic in-depth analysis.
In SMM China Cobalt Lithium New Energy Weekly, you can learn about the price, output, capacity, operating rate and inventory changes of each product in the cobalt and lithium industry chain. We will also track the demand changes and national policies of the global lithium battery terminal market (including new energy vehicles, 3C consumer electronic products, etc.) to give a comprehensive overview of the cobalt lithium new energy industry chain.
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Welcome to contact SMM Cobalt Lithium New Energy Research team:
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Mei Wang Qin 021 Mui 51666759
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